Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capability provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
