Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
